Kalshi: Into the Deep End Once Again

Andrew Ku

06 Mar 2026 — 2 min read

History

Individuals familiar with me know that I have a long history with online gambling. In high school I routinely stayed up late to bet virtual cosmetic firearms skins on professional Counter Strike: Global Offensive matches. I was also mining cryptocurrency and placing them on sportsbook betting sites mainly for NBA games. When online sports betting sites became legal in 2022, I signed up for all the new member bonus redemptions when the NFL season started on all the various sites. Fast forward to present day, the widespread adoption and usage of prediction market became very attractive to me.

Backstory

I was walking home after work on a evening in March. The cold was behind us, rain was in the air, and the forthcoming daylight savings time change meant that sunsets would soon start at 6:55pm.

In the week prior, the United States launched joint strikes with Israel towards Iran, killing their supreme leader. In retaliation, the Iranians closed off the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely and threatened missiles fired towards the direction to any ship that sailed through the strait. The global oil trade was effectively suspended and the price of crude shot through the roof.

As a leisure driver of my paid off 2019 Toyota Corolla, I was very price conscious of what I paid for fuel at the pump. And as I went about my days, I would take a peak of what gas prices were set at the gas stations in my neighborhood. After all, a penny saved is a penny earned. Furthermore, I was trying to drive the least amount as possible, to spend the least amount I could on gas and to accrue the least amount of miles on my engine.

As I got off the bus and crossed the intersection to start the walk the walk home, I realized that the price of the regular grade fuel went up 10 cents every day for the past 4 days. A strictly linear pattern. At this rate, I thought, the U.S. would probably want to end the war, for these price movements were not sustainable.

Here We Go

I texted my colleagues from work and another chat among my friends with my idea:

Gas has gone up 10 cents every day for the past 5 days. Going to bet on polymarket that the war will be over in 2 weeks

It turns out, Polymarket wasn't available in NY yet, but my friend has a referral code for Kalshi, so there I went. I couldn't find a trade that suited my idea, so I picked something that I had prior experience with: Counter Strike.

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